In a pivotal moment for Iran, the nation gears up for parliamentary elections on Friday, viewed as a litmus test for public sentiment on issues ranging from domestic protests to its involvement in the Israel-Hamas conflict. With moderate factions sidelined and the absence of conventional political parties, the focus shifts to voter turnout as a significant metric, reflecting the Islamic Republic’s resilience amidst challenges.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei emphasizes the importance of high participation, asserting that it showcases national strength and security, especially in the face of tensions with the US and Israel. Previous elections have seen a decline in turnout, reaching a record low of 42.5% in 2020 and 48.8% in 2021. High participation typically aligns with stronger showings for reformists and moderates.
Khamenei’s desire to secure the legacy of the hardliners and reinforce the regime’s strength becomes evident in the run-up to the elections. The parliament’s role in approving budgets and international contracts, coupled with its function in setting laws, underscores its significance. Amid international scrutiny, the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel has highlighted Iran’s involvement through its “axis of resistance” militia network.
Beyond legislative matters, Friday’s vote includes the Assembly of Experts, responsible for selecting the supreme leader. With Khamenei at 84, the assembly’s incoming members may oversee a succession, a task undertaken only once since the 1979 revolution. The low competition in the assembly vote, with fewer than two candidates per seat, indicates a focus on ensuring a loyal and orderly transition.
Former President Hassan Rouhani, known for the 2015 nuclear deal, is notably disqualified from running again. The election occurs against the backdrop of failed attempts to revive the nuclear deal, and Iran retains the capability to pursue nuclear weapons should it decide to do so. The results of these elections are poised to shape Iran’s trajectory in a volatile regional and international landscape.
