The day of the election should only last one day, but polls and recent history show that we might not know the outcome of the Nov. 5 presidential race and important congressional races for days or even weeks.
A report released Wednesday by Ed Clissold, top U.S. equity strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that investors may have to deal with long periods of uncertainty, which have hurt markets in the past.
In a recent note, Clissold said, “The market has generally gone down because of the political uncertainty, but not in every case.” “In some years, the positive [macroeconomic] backdrop overrode the negative mood.”
As an example, the 2000 election, where it took more than a month to decide that George W. Bush beat Al Gore, could be the most worrying for investors. During that time, the S&P 500 SPX 0.41% dropped 8.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA 0.69% dropped 5.3%.
An economist named David Rosenberg wrote on X on Thursday that markets should look at the 2000 election as a model for next week.
They were told not to stay up late on November 5 because they would not know the results until the next day.
“There will be recounts and legal challenges, and this will be the most heated election ever,” he wrote. “This is going to be Gore vs. Bush on steroids in November 2000.” Remember that there was a month of political instability that went all the way to the Supreme Court.
Rosenberg said to buy gold (GC00 0.13%), bonds (TMUBMUSD10Y 4.293%), and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) for 3.38%. He also said to sell short the S&P 500 and the U.S. dollar (DXY -0.56%).
When politics were tense around the 2020 election, markets were calmer. It took four days for news outlets to call the race for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, and it took weeks more of court cases before the matter was finally settled.
During those first four days, markets actually went up, but Clissold says that the market was more focused on good news about the COVID-19 pandemic because good news about how well vaccines work came out at the same time.
Analysts say buyers should be ready for uncertainty and know the important dates from November 8 to January 20, which is the inauguration.
Chris Krueger, a policy expert at TD Cowen, wrote in a Thursday note, “Election Night Could Turn Into Election Winter Unless There Is A Landslide.” He included a timeline of when the Associated Press called key states in the 2020 presidential election.
t’s possible it will take longer to call the race this year, as very close margins in a number of states could turn late-arriving ballots into decisive votes, and because there may be demands to conduct recounts in some states.
Here are dates that will be critical in determining who wins the White House and both chambers of Congress in this election.
| Date | Event |
| Nov. 9 | Deadline for Nevada postal ballots to arrive |
| Nov. 12 | Deadline for Georgia to complete count |
| Nov. 14 | Deadline to request recount in Georgia |
| Nov. 15 | Deadline for Nevada to complete count |
| Nov. 19 | Deadline for Pennsylvania and Florida to complete count |
| Nov. 20 | Deadline to request recount in Nevada |
| Nov. 25 | Deadline to complete counts in Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania |
| Nov. 27 | Deadline to request recount in Michigan |
| Nov. 30 | Deadline to dispute election in Arizona |
| Dec. 1 | Deadline to complete count in Wisconsin |
| Dec. 2 | Deadline to request recount in Wisconsin |
| Dec. 6 | Deadline to complete count in North Carolina |
| Dec. 10 | Deadline to request recount in North Carolina |
| Dec. 11 | States issue certified election results |
| Dec. 17 | Electors meet in state capitals and vote for president |
| Dec. 25 | Electoral votes arrive in Washington, D.C. |
| Jan. 3 | New Congress sworn in |
| Jan. 6 | Congress certifies election |
| Jan. 20 | Presidential inauguration |
A small mistake in the average of the polls, on the other hand, could mean that either candidate wins by a big enough margin to avoid the drama of four years ago.
In a recent client note, Henrietta Treyz, head of economic policy at Veda Partners, said that many states, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, have “improved” the way they count votes, which could mean that we know the final results sooner.
“This election, count us on the side of the optimists,” Treyz wrote. She also said, “I think that the last four years of lawsuits, state-wide changes to the election process, and making sure that local election officials are ready will make the 2024 election look a lot more like 2016 than 2020.”
The news called Pennsylvania for Trump around 1:30 a.m. Eastern time the day after race Day in 2016, and they called Wisconsin and the whole race for him about an hour later.
Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, gave up the election to Trump just before 3 a.m. that same day.
