JERUSALEM — In the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the foreign minister, and other officials, the effects are likely to be felt all over the Middle East, where Iran has a lot of power.
That’s because Iran has been supporting armed groups and militants in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories for decades. This gives it power and could stop attacks from the US or Israel, which are both sworn enemies of the Islamic Revolution that began in 1979.
Before last month, things were at their worst. That’s when Raisi and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, fired hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles at Israel in response to an airstrike that killed two generals and five officers at an Iranian consulate in Syria.
Nearly all of the missiles were blocked by Israel with help from the US, UK, Jordan, and other countries. In response, Israel seems to have attacked an air defense radar system in the Iranian city of Isfahan. The attack did not kill anyone but sent a clear message.
After years of secret operations and cyberattacks, the two sides have been fighting a “shadow war.” The exchange of fire in April was their first direct military clash.
Other countries that support Iran have joined the war between Israel and Hamas, and each attack and counterattack could start a bigger war.
It’s a mix that could catch fire if something unexpected happens, like a helicopter carrying important people disappearing into the fog.
A bitter rivalry with Israel
Israel has long viewed Iran as its greatest threat because of Tehran’s controversial nuclear program, its ballistic missiles and its support for armed groups sworn to Israel’s destruction.
Iran views itself as the chief patron of Palestinian resistance to Israeli rule, and top officials for years have called for Israel to be wiped off the map.
Raisi, a hard-liner viewed as a protégé and possible successor of Khamenei, chastised Israel last month, saying “the Zionist Israeli regime has been committing oppression against the people of Palestine for 75 years.”
“First of all we have to expel the usurpers, secondly we should make them pay the cost for all the damages they have created, and thirdly, we have to bring to justice the oppressor and usurper,” he said.
Israel is believed to have carried out numerous attacks over the years targeting senior Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists.
There is no evidence Israel was involved in Sunday’s helicopter crash, and Israeli officials have not commented on the incident.
Arab countries on the Persian Gulf have also long viewed Iran with suspicion, a key factor in the decision of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to normalize relations with Israel in 2020, and of Saudi Arabia to consider such a move.
Regional proxy war
Iran has provided financial and other support over the years to the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which led the Oct. 7 attack into Israel that triggered the Gaza war, and the smaller but more radical Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which took part in it. But there is no evidence that Iran was directly involved in the attack.
Since the start of the war, Iran’s leaders have expressed solidarity with the Palestinians. Their allies in the region have gone much further.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group, Iran’s most militarily advanced proxy, has waged a low-intensity conflict with Israel since the start of the Gaza war. The two sides have traded strikes on a near-daily basis along the Israel-Lebanon border, forcing tens of thousands of people on both sides to flee.
So far, however, the conflict has not boiled over into a full-blown war that would be disastrous for both countries.
Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq launched repeated attacks on U.S. bases in the opening months of the war but pulled back after U.S. retaliatory strikes for a drone attack that killed three American soldiers in January.
Yemen’s Houthi rebels, another ally of Iran, have repeatedly targeted international shipping in what they portray as a blockade of Israel. Those strikes, which often target ships with no apparent links to Israel, have also drawn U.S.-led retaliation.
Beyond the Middle East
Iran’s influence extends beyond the Middle East and its rivalry with Israel.
Israel and Western countries have long suspected Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons in the guise of a peaceful atomic program in what they see as a threat to non-proliferation everywhere.
Then-President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from a landmark nuclear pact between Iran and world powers in 2018, and his imposition of crushing sanctions, led Iran to gradually abandon all the limits placed on its program by the deal.
These days, Iran is enriching uranium to up to 60% purity — near weapons-grade levels of 90%. Surveillance cameras installed by the U.N. nuclear agency have been disrupted, and Iran has barred some of the agency’s most experienced inspectors. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is for purely peaceful purposes, but the United States and others believe it had an active nuclear weapons program until 2003.
Israel is widely believed to be the only nuclear-armed power in the Middle East but has never acknowledged having such weapons.
Iran has also emerged as a key ally of Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, and is widely accused of supplying exploding drones that have wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s cities. Raisi himself denied the allegations last fall in an interview with The Associated Press, saying Iran had not supplied such weapons since the outbreak of hostilities in February 2022.
Iranian officials have made contradictory comments about the drones, while U.S. and European officials say the sheer number being used in the war in Ukraine shows that the flow of such weapons has intensified since the war began.
