Forget about McDonald’s $5 meals. With big discounts and falling turkey prices, your Thanksgiving meal might cost about the same for each person.
The current poll by the American Farm Bureau Federation, a group that represents the agriculture industry, shows that the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal will go down from over $6 last year to $5.80 per person.
Farm Bureau says that in 2024, a traditional meal with a 16-pound turkey that serves 10 people costs an average of $58.08 for the whole thing. The price in 2023 was $61.17, which was 4.5% less than the price in 2022, which was $64.05.
According to Bernt Nelson, an economist at the Farm Bureau, prices have gone down for turkey, which is usually the main attraction and the most expensive part of a standard Thanksgiving meal. This is because fewer people want to buy it.
According to the Farm Bureau, since 1986, the price of a 12-item Thanksgiving meal has been less than $5 per person on average. The only times this didn’t happen were in 2022 and 2023, when inflation hurt Americans’ wallets. The cost per person is still higher in 2024 than it was in 2021, at $5.33, even though it went down this year.
Grocery chains compete over steep Thanksgiving meal deals
Thanksgiving dinner prices have been going down even more because stores want to sell it for less.
Kroger KR 0.92% said earlier this week that its turkey meal won’t cost more than $4.85 per person. This makes it the latest store to enter the Thanksgiving meal price race. One of the first stores to hint at its Thanksgiving deals was Aldi, which said that its meal costs $4.70 per person. Target (TGT4.54%) and Amazon Fresh (AMZN 1.30%) both said they would offer Thanksgiving dinners for $5 or less per person.
Because of inflation, food has become more expensive in general, especially when you eat out or get takeout. Even at fast food places, the average price of a meal in 2023 was $7.63. At casual locations, the average price of a meal for two people was $16.53.
Cost is the main thing that most people think about when they are planning a Thanksgiving dinner. A different Circana poll found that about a third of people said they thought the cost of Thanksgiving groceries would go up this year, but they still planned to buy the same amount as last year.
A recent poll by Deloitte found that some hosts are cutting back on their Thanksgiving meals and guest lists this year. About three out of ten Americans polled said they would give something less fancy, and the same number said they would not invite some family or friends. The poll found that this year’s average number of guests is just over 10—10.4—and that the average total cost of hosting the dinner is $260.
People in the US are not eating turkey.
Even though inflation has gone down, some food store prices have not gone down. The Farm Bureau said that while the average Thanksgiving meal will cost less this year, the prices of some items, like fresh cranberries and whipping cream, have gone up since last year.
But turkey, which is what many families eat for dinner, will cost a little less on average than it did last year. The political group says that a 16-pound turkey costs about $25.67, or $1.68 per pound. It costs 6% less now than it did in 2023, when it cost $1.71 per pound.
Nelson, the economist for the Farm Bureau, said in a statement, “The turkey is usually the star of the Thanksgiving table and the most expensive part of the meal.”
People are buying less turkey, which is why the price is going down. According to Brian Earnest, lead economist on animal protein at CoBank, there are a lot of turkeys in cold storage that were not from this year’s group. He said that even though bird flu has hurt the American turkey flock, it won’t have a big effect on prices because feed costs are low and there are plenty of turkeys in cold storage.
Earnest wrote in a study note that interest in turkey has been going down. He said that from October to December of last year, the least amount of wholesale retail turkey was bought during the holiday season since 1980. Instead, buyers are turning to other meats like beef and pork as main dishes.
Analysts say that stores often give heavy deals on turkey, even though they often lose money by doing so. When people pay more than a certain amount, they sometimes give away free turkeys. Earnest wrote in his note that shops are hoping that these giveaways will help bring in customers who will buy things to make up for the loss.
This year, most stores sold turkeys for a lot less than the Farm Bureau’s usual price. Walmart WMT -1.11% sells Thanksgiving turkey for 88 cents per pound, while Amazon Fresh sells it for 49 cents per pound. One pound of turkey costs 49 cents at Kroger.com.
Analysts say that this year’s big sales have a reason. Due to high prices, a lot of shoppers have cut back on their purchases and stopped shopping at national names and big grocery stores. Analysts told BourseWatch that Thanksgiving this year is a chance to win them back.
The average price of ingredients for a Thanksgiving meal
Here’s a breakdown by the American Farm Bureau Federation of the average price of ingredients for a Thanksgiving meal that serves 10 people this year, compared with their 2023 price levels:
- 16-pound turkey: $25.67 or $1.68 per pound (down 6.1%)
- 14 ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $4.08 (up 8.2%)
- 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.40 (down 2.9%)
- Half pint of whipping cream: $1.81 (up 4.7%)
- 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.73 (down 8.1%)
- 1 dozen dinner rolls: $4.16 (up 8.4%)
- Miscellaneous ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.75 (down 5.1%)
- 30-ounce can of pumpkin-pie mix: $4.15 (down 6.5%)
- 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.21 (down 14.3%)
- 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $2.93 (down 26.2%)
- 1-pound veggie tray (carrots and celery): 84 cents (down 6.4%)
- 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.35 (up 11.8%)
