There could be an effect on industries when Donald Trump announces his choice for running mate. Trump is the likely Republican presidential nominee.
One possible running mate, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, whose state makes a lot of oil and gas, could help Trump carry out the policies that the former president has long supported when it comes to fossil fuels. That’s what Jeff Hauser, founder and executive director of the Revolving Door Project, an organisation that keeps an eye on how corporations affect the executive branch, says.
Hauser told MarketWatch that Burgum would not be focused on setting the administration’s big-picture direction. Instead, he would be detail-oriented and carry out his plans in a more sophisticated and pro-business way than Trump may have been able to do in his first term. Hauser said Burgum might be able to do something like Dick Cheney, who was George W. Bush’s vice president.
As of right now, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio is in second place in the PredictIt betting market for the GOP vice-president nominee, behind Burgum, who was a candidate for president in 2024.
A software company that the governor sold to Microsoft MSFT, +0.32% for $1 billion about 20 years ago is one thing that people know about him. Some people in the tech industry may also know him and may “try to take advantage of those personal relationships” if he becomes vice president. Hauser spoke up.
There are, however, some experts who are hesitant to make predictions about how Trump’s running mate might affect things.
“Trump seems pretty determined to focus on fossil fuel production over climate change concerns, no matter who his vice president is,” said Joel Goldstein, a law professor emeritus at Missouri’s Saint Louis University who has written two books on the vice presidency. “Because of Trump’s past experiences with vice presidents, the way the V.P. search has been handled, and other unknowns about who Trump will choose as his running mate and how he will feel about them, I wouldn’t say that his V.P. would have a lot of policy-making power.”
Goldstein also said that some vice presidents can change policy. For example, Cheney was able to do this with his work on energy XLE and deregulation. Similarly, Al Gore “influenced environmental and telecommunications XLC policy in the Clinton administration.”
Michael Pence, Trump’s vice president in his first term, “had some sway over some things because he worked in a White House with very little government experience,” Goldstein said. According to Goldstein, Pence had a relationship with Trump that ended on January 6 because he wouldn’t break the Constitution or the Electoral Count Act. However, Pence doesn’t seem to have been one of the most influential vice presidents.
Kate Andersen Brower, who wrote the book “First in Line” about modern vice presidents, also said she didn’t want to make any predictions about Trump’s running mate.
Because she had studied the job for years and talked to vice presidents, she said, “there’s no way to say how much influence a V.P. will have on any given subject.” “Of course, their knowledge and relationships with lawmakers are important, but they work for the president and he decides what their job is.”
Still, it’s likely that big names in the financial world are keeping an eye on Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina to see if he becomes Trump’s running mate. Scott, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, got money from CEOs of large financial firms when he was running for president as a Republican in 2024 but lost.
Hauser of the Revolving Door Project said, “Tim Scott has been in charge of the most important financial regulators while he has been on the Senate Banking Committee. I think he will have ideas about how to fill those jobs if he is vice president.”
Hauser said that tech mogul Peter Thiel might give money to Republican candidates again if Trump chooses Vance as his running mate. In 2022, Thiel gave money to Vance, and in 2016, he gave money to Trump. Last year, he promised not to give any money to GOP candidates for office in 2024.
Hauser said, “I think Trump would want Thiel to step up if Vance is chosen.” He also said that Vance, who has worked in venture capital with Thiel, sees “political opportunities in being sceptical of at least segments of big business.” This means that those segments of big business might be worried if Vance becomes Trump’s running mate.
ITA could be keeping an eye on Trump to see if he chooses Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida or Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas. Hirsch said that among the possible running mates, Rubio probably has the most neoconservative ideas about foreign policy. Cotton is also known for being hawkish.
Trump’s choice could stay a big part of U.S. policy for a long time.
Hauser stated, “I believe that if you stay with Donald Trump, you will win the Republican nomination for president in the future.” “This is definitely someone who will be important for eight to twelve years.”
Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager who is thought to be a possible Trump pick for Treasury secretary, talked about what some big names on Wall Street might be thinking about the V.P. front last month.
Bessent said, “I don’t know much about the vice president, but I think they’d be okay with the list that got out.” He was talking about several news stories that said Trump was considering politicians like Burgum, Rubio, Scott, and Vance as running mates.
According to a report in the New York Times on Tuesday, Trump is still not naming his running mate because he doesn’t want to add to the controversy surrounding President Joe Biden after the Democratic incumbent did poorly in last week’s debate. Some people want Biden to drop out of the race for president, and Vice President Kamala Harris is now seen as the most likely candidate to replace him as the Democratic nominee.
