The sad accident that occurred late Wednesday between a military helicopter and a regional flight operated by American Airlines (AAL) highlights how rare both “near misses” and deadly passenger airline catastrophes are in the United States.
According to Ernest Arvai, head of aviation consulting firm AirInsight Group, “we have had a relatively safe period for quite a while.” “With the number of flights crisscrossing America’s skies, deadly crashes like Wednesday’s are thankfully rare events,” he said.
“But perfect is always the goal of aviation, and even one is too many,” Arvai stated.
67 individuals were killed in the collision on Wednesday.
It will take at least six months to complete an inquiry into the collision’s causes, and it will probably focus on whether the military helicopter was in the wrong place at the wrong time, according to Arvai.
The Federal Aviation Administration, the National Transportation Safety Board, and the U.S. military will be “carrying out a systematic and comprehensive investigation,” according to President Donald Trump, who also announced Thursday morning that he is appointing Christopher Rocheleau, a 22-year FAA veteran, as acting commissioner.
Trump also told reporters in the White House briefing room, “We have some very strong opinions and ideas, but we do not know what led to this crash.”
The president then blamed “a pilot problem from the standpoint of the helicopter,” adding that it was “a very clear night,” and stated that he believes diversity hiring at the FAA may have contributed to the collision.
The United States faced a scarcity of air traffic controllers almost two years ago, and reports of near-misses involving commercial aircraft led to hearings on Capitol Hill and airline schedule reductions during the busiest time of year for travel.
As of late 2024, 10,733 trained professional controllers were employed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to operate the National Airspace System, which is a network of facilities and controlled and uncontrolled airspace, according to the National Air Traffic Controllers Association, a union.
14,335 certified controllers are the union’s goal “to fully staff the NAS,” according to a spokeswoman.
The union referred to the FAA’s 2023 recruiting goal adjustment to 1,800 new jobs for each of fiscal years 2024 through 2026 as “a positive development.”
The FAA estimates that 2.9 million airline passengers and more than 45,000 daily flights traverse the more than 29 million square miles that make up the NAS.
There are frequently delays between hiring and performing duties, as well as between beginning work and performing duties at the busiest airports in the country, even though the FAA has increased the number of controllers it has hired as part of its plan to alleviate shortages.
A new hire’s training takes roughly three years, and the dropout rate is over 50%, “which is another big problem,” according to Arvai.
“You’ve got to be on 100% of the time, and things change very quickly,” he stated. “It can be overwhelming at times.”
Even as a seasoned aviation worker, Arvai remembered feeling similar overwhelmingness during an air-traffic control simulation. “If things go wrong they can cascade and escalate very quickly.”
It can take some time to recruit more professionals to the busiest corridors and to work autonomously because new controllers typically begin their careers in smaller cities.
It was the first tragic event involving a U.S. commercial passenger airliner in 14 years prior to Wednesday’s crash. Two pilots, two flight attendants, forty-five passengers, and one person on the ground were killed in 2009 when a propeller plane that was part of a Continental regional flight bound for Buffalo, New York, stopped close to its destination and crashed into a house.
The International Air Transport Association, a trade organization that represents the world’s largest carriers, said in its most recent report on aviation trends that 2023 was “a record year for aviation safety.”
Compared to a five-year average of one accident per 880,000 flights and a global accident rate of one per 1.26 million flights in 2022, the 2023 accident rate was one per 770,000 flights.
