Last year was a big one for the space sector, marked by SpaceX’s building momentum, Boeing Co.’s Starliner struggles, and a slew of activity from a host of names. So what can we expect in 2025?
Ehud Behar, a physics professor at the Technion Israel Institute of Technology, said he was not surprised by the success of the likes of AST SpaceMobile Inc. The space-based broadband company launched its first five commercial satellites into space last year and also announced launch-services deals to provide space-based cellular broadband service coverage for key markets such as the U.S., Europe, Japan, and the U.S. government.
The launch campaign from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is planned for 2025 and 2026.
AST SpaceMobile’s stock ASTS finished 2024 up 249.9% for the year.
“Overall, I am not surprised by how the market is optimistic,” Behar told MarketWatch. “I think there’s a lot of potential in the space business that has not been realized yet.”
Andrew Chanin, CEO of Procure AM, issuer of the Procure Space ETF UFO +3.78% , highlighted the success of Rocket Lab USA Inc. RKLB +15.14% and Intuitive Machines Inc. LUNR +13.30% .
“Now you’re starting to see the names that successfully navigated those early de-SPAC years,” he told MarketWatch. “Some of them are making progress that is pretty amazing.”
Space-launch company Rocket Lab went public in 2021 through a merger with the special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, Vector Acquisition Corp. The Long Beach, Calif.–based company recently hit a milestone when it completed successful launches in two different countries in less than 24 hours.
Rocket Lab has noted strong demand for its Electron rocket and is planning the first test launch of its new Neutron rocket in 2025, which will be followed by three launches in 2026.
The company’s stock rose 360.6% in 2024.
Intuitive Machines Inc. went public in 2023 through a merger with another SPAC: Inflection Point Acquisition. 2024 was a great year. The Odysseus lander from a Houston-based space exploration business was the first commercial lander to land on the moon’s surface in February. The second journey from Intuitive Machines, called IM-2, will go to the moon’s surface in early 2025.
Big deals are being made by the company. It told the public last week that it had won more orders from NASA’s Near Space Network. In a statement, Steve Altemus, CEO of Intuitive Machines, said that the contracts his company was awarded put it in a good situation to take advantage of the NSN agreement’s $4.82 billion maximum value.
In September, Intuitive Machines stock went through the roof after the company said that NASA had given it the NSN contract to provide communication and guidance services for missions in near space, which is the area between Earth and the moon. Late in August, NASA also gave Intuitive Machines a $116.9 million deal to send six science and technology packages to the south pole of the moon. In 2024, the company’s price went up 610.8% against this background.
The most valuable company in the Procure Space ETF is Intuitive Machines. It is followed by Rocket Lab, Planet Labs PBC PL +6.30%, Globalstar Inc. GSAT +3.77%, and space mission partner MDA Space Ltd. MDA +3.33%.
Redwire Corp. RDW +6.16%, a small-cap company that makes and sells space equipment, has also been getting a lot of press lately. A recent note from research firm Alliance Global Partners raised its price target for the stock from $10 to $16. The firm says the company will benefit from a good flow of new business. At the end of 2024, the shares of the company were up 477.5% for the year.
Alliance Global Partners also talked about Intuitive Machines, BlackSky Technology Inc. (BKSY +11.04%), and Spire Global Inc. (SPIR +7.32%), a company that works on nanosatellites. An analyst at Alliance Global Partners called Spire Global “has one of the largest constellations of satellites that are used to collect data and then provide analytics for weather and aviation predictions.” Spire Global is based in Vienna, Virginia.
“The company did start making money in 2024 (pending a restatement), and the sale of its maritime business recently should leave the balance sheet spotless,” he said.
Last year, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. SPCE +7.76% made the last commercial trip of its Unity spacecraft. The company will now focus on its new Delta-class spaceships in 2025, and they should be ready for service in 2026.
KeyBanc Capital Markets kept its sector-weight rating for Virgin Galactic in a recent note. KBC analyst Michael Leshock wrote in the note, “We believe [Virgin Galactic’s] long-term targets are highly attractive, and it is now building the foundation to achieve strong future profitability.”
Boeing Co. BA -1.15% did not have a great year in 2024. The company’s Starliner capsule came back from the International Space Station without any people on board in September. The flight had problems with the thrusters and helium leaks. NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams were sent to the ISS on Starliner in June. In the spring of 2025, they will return to Earth on SpaceX’s Crew-9 mission.
The Starliner saga put the connection between NASA and Boeing in the public eye. When NASA first talked about the idea of Williams and Wilmore taking a ride with SpaceX, for example, Boeing said that Starliner could still safely take the astronauts back to Earth.
Behar, a professor at the Technion, wants Boeing to get over the Starliner mess. He told BourseWatch, “I expect Boeing to pick themselves up in 2025.” “Things are not going well for them. I hope they don’t give up and stay in the game.”
Behar said that Starliner had safely come back to Earth, but Williams and Wilmore were not on board. He said, “We want more than one company to take astronauts to the Space Station.”
SpaceX, on the other hand, is getting stronger and stronger. She told MarketWatch, “I am amazed by their progress.”
In 2024, SpaceX launched more than 130 rockets, and four of them were Starships. To grab the Starship rocket booster for the first time, SpaceX used artificial arms on the launch tower in October. These arms were called “chopsticks.”
The next month, President-elect Donald Trump went to see the sixth flight test with his new friend and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk.
“There is a lot of potential in Starship,” Behar told MarketWatch. “Since the Space Shuttle was taken out of service, we haven’t had a heavy carrier.”
“The idea of sending a heavy lifter into space is interesting all around,” he said. “What interests me is the idea of having something like what the shuttle and ISS were meant to be: a place where spacecraft can be managed and fixed.” “You could have a starship that goes around.”
In 2027, NASA’s Artemis III mission will use Starship to put people on the moon’s surface. Musk, who is himself no stranger to bold announcements, set another ambitious target for Starship in September. “SpaceX plans to launch about five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years,” Musk wrote on the social-media site X, formerly Twitter, which he has owned since 2022. “If those all land safely, then crewed missions are possible in four years. The crewed missions will have to be put off another two years if we run into problems.
Musk looks to have the ear of Trump, and vice-versa. With the Republican former president set to return to the White House on Jan. 20, the sharing of possible policy and idea generation could follow, Procure AM’s Chanin noted. “I think that a lot of people look at EVs as being a Musk/Trump trade,” he said, adding that space needs to be viewed in the same way.
“Now is a really interesting time to consider the role that space plays in the broader global economy,” Chanin said, pointing, in particular, to the “cislunar economy,” which refers to the area between Earth and the moon or the moon’s orbit.
He also highlighted space-based communications, and future moon missions. “When we get people back to the moon,” he said, ”we’re going to be doing a lot of research on what is available there.”
