According to some analysts, Apple may introduce a foldable phone as early as 2026, while the company is said to be introducing a new iPhone Air next week.
Analysts are waiting to see if Tuesday’s announcement of Apple Inc.’s upcoming phone and product lineup will serve as a much-needed boost to the company’s stock price.
These iPhone-related incidents haven’t done much to boost Apple stock (AAPL) in recent years. As expectations are generally built into the stock prior to the release, such announcements have frequently been “sell-the-news” occurrences, according to a recent analysis by a BofA analyst.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, Apple shares have performed nearly flat on announcement day for the last five years and have dropped 2.1% on average between the event and the new phones’ release.
However, according to some Wall Street experts, there may be a pleasant surprise in store given the reports of a new, slimmer iPhone. At its “Awe Dropping” event on September 9, Apple is anticipated to reveal four new iPhone models, including the iPhone 17 Air.
For the iPhone 17 Air, analyst Samik Chatterjee of J.P. Morgan believes there is “room for surprise from better consumer reception” compared to what Apple is expecting. He thinks that customers who value in-hand comfort—a trait that is frequently sacrificed by larger batteries and cameras—will be drawn to the lighter and thinner phone.
The iPhone Air is anticipated to be about 35% thinner than the iPhone 16 series, measuring only 5.55 millimeters in thickness. Earlier this week, Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani noted that “this year’s Apple event sets the stage for a multiyear iPhone roadmap that’ll feature notable form-factor changes, beginning with this year’s release of the iPhone Air.”
Wamsi Mohan, an analyst at Bank of America, said in a report last week that “previous form-factor changes have driven a meaningfully higher next iPhone cycle.” Additionally, more and more consumers are finally replacing their iPhones that are four years or older, according to Daryanani. These enhancements may have contributed to Apple’s iPhone revenue’s 13% year-over-year increase in the most recent quarter.
However, given that Apple has previously experimented with various form factors with the iPhone Mini and Plus models, Mohan believes investors are less optimistic about the possible advantages of a slimmer iPhone, citing “tempered” expectations.
The iPhone Air, according to Chatterjee, “would be the next sequel of Apple’s attempts to revitalize the fourth SKU which has moderated to account for a steadily lower portion of the mix.” The iPhone Plus was less popular than the iPhone Mini 12 and 13 versions, which made up 13% and 14% of the iPhone product mix in the first fiscal year of each cycle, respectively, according to statistics from the research firms Omdia and J.P. Morgan. The following 15 and 16 iterations only accounted for 8% and 6% of each product cycle, respectively, whereas the iPhone Plus 14 accounted for 12% of that cycle’s product mix.
Since the design change doesn’t appear revolutionary to him, David Giroux, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Investment Management, is skeptical that the iPhone Air will have a significant impact on iPhone sales and Apple shares.
“I think the real positive for Apple would be when they come out with a foldable phone,” Giroux told MarketWatch. “That just drives a much higher price point than a traditional iPhone.”
Although rivals like Alphabet Inc.’s Google (GOOGL) (GOOG) and Samsung Electronics Co. (KR:005930) have introduced foldable phones, Giroux thinks Apple has been reluctant to enter the market early because of reports of problems with the hinge mechanism on current models.
However, according to Daryanani, Apple may introduce a curved glass iPhone in 2027 and a foldable iPhone as early as next year.
Apple needs a more significant shock, even if its stock has increased by almost 18% in the last month. With the exception of Tesla Inc.’s stock (TSLA), shares of the “Magnificent Seven” group of megacap tech companies have underperformed this year, down more than 4% so far in 2025. Concerns regarding the company’s competitiveness in artificial intelligence have contributed to the stock’s decline.
Therefore, Mohan stated that any news pertaining to Apple’s AI approach should boost the stock and enable it to “fare better” than it did following previous events, independent of the new iPhone announcements. Any encouraging information about Apple’s AI goals could allay investor concerns that the company is falling behind other well-known tech companies in this area.
The business appears to be working on something: According to a recent Bloomberg article, Apple and Google’s Gemini have been working together to overhaul Siri. However, it’s uncertain if Apple would make such an announcement at the event on Tuesday, which usually focuses more on hardware than software.
