Venezuela will ship up to 50 billion barrels of its oil to the United States, according to President Trump’s statement on Tuesday.
President Donald Trump issued an order less than a month ago, calling for a “total and complete blockade” of any sanctioned oil vessels entering and leaving Venezuela.
Since then, a lot has happened, which has affected the South American country’s production and exports of crude oil. Oil prices (CL.1) (BRN00) have fallen to their lowest points since mid-December due to speculation that the United States’ involvement in Venezuela’s oil industry will eventually result in more crude on international markets.
According to Matt Smith, U.S. chief analyst at Kpler, Venezuelan oil production has decreased to almost 800,000 barrels per day as a result of Trump’s blockade. A year earlier, Kpler estimated production to be closer to 1 million barrels per day.
According to Kpler data, Venezuelan oil production dropped to over 800,000 barrels per day in January 2025.
“As the blockade is lifted, production will rebound,” stated Smith.
Up to 50 billion barrels of Venezuela’s sanctioned oil will be sent to the United States, according to Trump on Tuesday. The oil will be sold at market value, with the president controlling the funds “to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.” The United States announced on Wednesday that it had “selectively” lifted sanctions to allow Venezuelan crude and oil products to be sold and transported to international markets.
According to Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, Trump believes Venezuela should pay the United States back for contracts it hasn’t fulfilled, which have cost American energy businesses billions of dollars in income over the years.
U.S. oil companies reportedly lost billions of dollars as a result of Venezuela’s then-President Hugo Chávez’s requirement that state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. hold a majority stake in any joint ventures in the 2000s.
According to that perspective, Trump can seize the Venezuelan oil he intends to export, according to Flynn.
As part of its assault against a shadow fleet of tankers that carry sanctioned Venezuelan oil, the U.S. Navy forcibly boarded a ship escorted by the Russian navy, according to a Wall Street Journal article on Wednesday.
According to Smith, Venezuela continues to load crude oil onto tankers “presumably so they do not have to fill inventories to the brim or cut production further.”
However, according to Kpler, Venezuelan oil exports have decreased from more than 1 million barrels per day in September to less than 800,000 barrels per day currently. A significant portion of December exports were classified as “unknown”—basically, referring to the crude that the blockade is preventing from reaching China, Smith said.
The majority of Venezuelan oil shipments in December were classified as “unknown” by Kpler, alluding to the crude that is prevented from reaching China by the U.S. ban on sanctioned tankers carrying Venezuelan oil.
Trump is scheduled to meet with executives from large energy firms on Friday. Tens of billions of dollars in more U.S. energy investment in Venezuela may result from that.
According to Flynn, Trump would probably play on the “patriotic spirit” of the oil firms and outline the significant economic potential that lies ahead of them.
The latest push for the United States to take control of Venezuela’s oil industry, according to Flynn, is hopeful and will “not only help the United States but the Venezuelan people, not to mention the entire [Western] hemisphere.”
He believes that Trump will increase the potential investment opportunities in Venezuela, including the country’s enormous gold (GC00) reserves and rare-earth minerals, and sees this as a strategic partnership within his larger goal of using energy security as national security.
“This could be the beginning of a new chapter in global energy security,” Flynn stated.
