The odds on the race to be Kamala Harris’s running mate have changed since it was announced that North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper has dropped out.
One political betting site, Polymarket, says that Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona is now the favorite to be the Democratic candidate for vice president. His odds are 38 cents on the dollar. The price of Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is 34 cents on the dollar, putting Kelly just ahead of him.
Kelly, who was an astronaut and a Navy pilot, is one of the Democrats who supports stricter border control. He would help Harris’s qualifications on the touchy issue of immigration. At some point, there would be a risk because if they won the vice-presidential race, a Senate seat would open up in a state that could easily go back to the Republicans.
On the other hand, Shapiro does well in Pennsylvania, which is known as a must-win state for any Democratic candidate.
This is how the odds look on Betfair in the UK: Shapiro has slightly better chances than Kelly.
The price of Gov. Tim Walz’s Polymarket deal in Minnesota is 16 cents on the dollar. Walz was the politician who called former President Trump “weird.” The Harris team is now using the same word to describe Harris.
At this point, only Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear have more than 1% of the vote in the Polymarket vice-presidential choice market.
It’s much harder to bet on politics than it is on stocks or bonds.
