Analysts have been telling investors not to put too much money on Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president. This comes at a time when the stock market has seen a “Harris trade.”
In a note earlier this week, Terry Haines, founder of the forecasting company Pangaea Policy, said that this trade is “completely overblown” because Harris is 70% likely to have a Congress that is politically split and wouldn’t support her policy ideas anyway.
“There’s no blue or red wave on the horizon,” he said. Instead, his “70% base case” is that the Democrats just barely win a majority in the House and the Republicans just barely win a majority in the Senate in November.
In a later note, Haines said that he is still warning people not to rely on the “Harris trade” unless it’s just a short-term trend and not to think that there’s a one-party “wave” coming.
The Pangaea Policy analyst thinks that Harris will beat Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, by 60%. On Friday, RealClearPolitics showed that she had a 51% chance of winning, but that number is now higher.
On the other hand, Polymarket, a betting market, says that Republicans have a 76% chance of taking over the Senate by Friday and Democrats have a 63% chance of taking back the House. Politico says that Republicans have 83% of the vote for the Senate and 71% for the House.
The Senate is mostly made up of Democrats, while the House is mostly made up of Republicans.
BourseWatch wrote about the Harris trade and linked it to rises in solar stocks (TAN 1.35%) and other clean-energy plays (ICLN 1.26%), as well as falls in Trump Media & Technology (DJT) by 11.79% and bitcoin (BTCUSD) by 0.19%.
