In a research note released Thursday, Barclays economists estimate that deportations are occurring at a rate of 120,000 per year. Since there is a strong correlation between monthly interior detentions and deportations, they obtain the data from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention statistics.
The deportation rate, according to the analysts, would have little impact on the number of people who are considered irregular immigrants, which Barclays estimated to be 17 million last year.
According to their data, the White House has had greater success in halting the flow of immigrants who are trying to enter the country to claim asylum.
President Joe Biden’s June immigration order had already begun to reduce flows, but humanitarian immigration dropped from 46,000 in January and 74,000 in December to less than 1,000 in February and March.
The White House crackdown is expected to have an impact on the economy, according to Barclays economists. This is especially true in the trucking, construction, food and beverage services, housekeeping, and agricultural industries, where up to one-third of the labor force is made up of migrants under special programs, illegal immigrants, asylum seekers, and overstays.
Legal work authorization is available to humanitarian immigrants and asylum applicants.
“This concentration typically occurs in areas characterized by labor-intensive or seasonal work, positions with fewer credential requirements, or industries with historical patterns of irregular immigrant employment,” according to them. U.S.-born Americans tend to overlook these jobs.
However, the crackdown will help local government finances. The economists point out that New York has been closing its migrant shelters, while Denver has completely shut down its emergency shelters.
