Even while the Trump administration and congressional Republicans are still steadfastly committed to increasing U.S. energy production, Americans may soon feel the pain at the gas pump and on their electricity bills.
The reason for this is that a new bill that is gaining traction in the Senate would impose harsh tariffs on any nation that imports uranium, oil, and other energy items from Russia. This could cause disruptions in the global energy markets and raise the cost of everything from power to gasoline.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican and the measure’s primary supporter, has referred to the legislation as “the most draconian bill I’ve ever seen in my life in the Senate,” and it seeks to penalize Russia for its failure to accept a ceasefire in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine.
The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 would subject Russia’s banking and energy industries to a broad range of sanctions. In addition to imposing a 500% levy on all imports of uranium, oil, gas, and petrochemicals of Russian origins—basically outlawing them—it also targets those nations that still do business with Russian energy companies.
The same 500% levy might be applied to exports from any country that purchases Russian uranium or oil, a move analysts say is intended to drive the world away from Russian energy. China, India, South Korea, and Turkey are among the major trading partners of the United States that import energy from Russia.
Although the bill’s worldwide reach could boomerang on American households, it is positioned as a measure to choke off funds for Russia’s war effort. Such sanctions, according to analysts, will result in higher energy costs, which will be felt most acutely in Europe but also in the United States.
Christopher Granville, an analyst at TS Lombard, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that the largest danger of an energy supply shock in the upcoming months “would be a no-holds-barred move by the U.S. to throttle Russian oil exports.”
“If Trump went for such sanctions… oil prices would spike as in 2022,” he stated, saying that this would lead the Russians for “throw everything possible into collapsing the Ukrainian front before the squeeze on their oil rents threatened domestic economic and social stability.”
He described these increased sanctions as “a roll of the dice” with uncertain ramifications for the war overseas and global energy prices.
For domestic political reasons, former President Joe Biden, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, even avoided the kind of tariffs that the Senate measure proposed.
In order to punish corporations that sold Russian oil at prices higher than $60 per barrel, Biden instead put a so-called price ceiling on Russian oil exports. However, the policy failed to reduce the profits that have been used to fund the Russian war effort.
The price-cap mechanism was the result of “U.S. eagerness to keep Russian oil flowing to prevent a rise in gasoline prices,” read a recent analysis written by Nicholas Fenton, an analyst with the think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Russia achieved this, in part, by developing clients in markets that declined to take part in sanctions against Russia, such as China and India. If these nations continued to purchase Russian energy, the Senate plan would impose 500% tariffs on their shipments to the United States.
Regarding the president’s intentions to pressure Russia into signing a ceasefire deal that may initiate meaningful peace negotiations, there are still conflicting indications.
The press secretary for the White House told reporters on Tuesday that Trump has maintained sanctions “as a tool in his toolbox if necessary, but I think the Senate and everyone on Capitol Hill respects the president is the commander-in-chief for a reason.”
Speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, Trump claimed on Truth Social that “it was a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace.”
The Graham legislation “would give Trump the power to effectively drive Russian energy sales from the global market,” he continued, adding, “providing Trump with strong bipartisan backing as he tries, one last time, to persuade Putin” to end the war. Marc Thiessen, the former speechwriter for then-President George W. Bush, wrote the article.
According to analysts, it is unlikely that the plan would be introduced on the Senate floor until after Congress has passed Trump’s comprehensive tax and spending bill.
In a client note, Veda Partners’ economic policy expert Henrietta Treyz stated, “The White House clearly does not want Congress to impose sanctions.” The administration of President Trump “would prefer to hold off on sanctions until after the reconciliation package passes.”
