Early Wednesday morning, the financial markets were moving in a way that suggested there was a lower chance of a second Donald Trump president.
Cross-asset moves showed who traders thought had won, even though a key inflation report was coming up soon. U.S. stock futures ES00 -0.24% went down a little. A lot of important currencies, like the Japanese yen (USDJPY -0.65%), went down against the dollar. The value of Bitcoin BTCUSD -1.96% fell by 2%.
The dollar is down across the board so far, with AsiaFX doing better than expected and U.S. stock futures showing signs of weakness. “This fits with polls that showed Harris beat Trump in the first presidential debate,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
That analysis was backed up by Chris Weston, who is the head of studies at Pepperstone. “Now that the dust has settled on the Trump vs. Harris Presidential debate, it’s clear that the market thought this debate would go to Kamala Harris,” he said, adding that Taylor Swift’s support for Harris was also good for the Democratic candidate.
He said that prediction markets like PredictIt gave market participants a rough idea of what to do. In the election betting odds site Election Betting Odds, Harris has a lead of 51.8% to 47%.
Weston said, “Let’s also not forget that if Harris does finally get up, the less market-friendly tax hikes probably won’t pass because the Senate will almost certainly go with the Republicans, making it hard to pass the more controversial policies.”
