Although the importance and expansion of the U.S. nuclear energy sector in domestic power generation are addressed by the four executive orders recently signed by President Donald Trump, the country will face significant challenges in supplying the uranium needed to quadruple nuclear energy capacity in 25 years.
“The overall message from these orders is very positive for the overall nuclear sector,” stated Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC, a marketplace intelligence and analysis company that focuses on nuclear fuels. The need for baseload energy supply in the United States is evidently increasing, particularly from hyperscalers like massive data centers and other industrial users like factories.
By 2050, the Trump administration aims to double the country’s nuclear energy capacity from 100 gigawatts to 400 gigawatts.
However, Hinze pointed out that the country generates very little uranium. Those nuclear power plants use that fuel to produce energy.
Hinze stated that the country’s present requirement of about 45 million pounds of uranium concentrate, or U3O8, would need to be quadrupled to about 180 million pounds annually in order to achieve the U.S. government’s nuclear-energy-capacity objective.
Even though the government wants to increase domestic fuel output, that would be quite an accomplishment. According to Hinze, the United States generated just about 800,000 pounds last year and imports between 40 and 50 million pounds annually on average. According to him, the entire world only mines roughly 165 million pounds annually.
Nevertheless, the market has responded favorably to the executive orders, which helped to boost shares of uranium miners, such as Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU), and associated exchange-traded funds, like the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF URNM, for the month of May.
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It’s also obvious that demand for nuclear electricity will increase. On Monday, the technology company Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) reached an agreement for Meta to purchase electricity from a nuclear facility in Illinois for 20 years.
Overall, Scott Melbye, executive vice president at uranium mining company Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC), which also saw its shares rise in May, stated that the executive orders announced on May 23 address various aspects of ensuring that robust growth can occur quickly to support the goals of American Energy Dominance and National Security.
In his summary, he stated that the executive orders will “streamline and fast-track regulatory and permitting processes” of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, maximize the deployment of advanced and small modular reactors at federal sites to support competitiveness goals for artificial intelligence and national security, revitalize the American industrial base, including the nuclear-fuel cycle, and promote innovations in new reactor technologies and testing.
“An impending energy crisis”
The U.S. is facing a “looming energy crisis,” according to Maxwell Shulman, research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, who stated in a recent report that increasing investments in manufacturing and AI data centers are contributing to the problem.
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According to a National Electrical Manufacturers Association assessment on grid stability released in April, during the next 25 years, the United States’ energy demand is expected to increase by more than 50%. Data centers might require up to 9% of the electricity generated in the United States by 2030, more than doubling the amount currently utilized, according to a separate report published last year by the Electric Power Research Institute.
Shulman stated that having specialized compact modular nuclear reactors on site for massive data centers is the “dream solution” for the electricity business. “Rather than rely on the grid, they aim to build their own personal facilities for consistent prices and energy supply,” he stated. In contrast to solar or wind power, he pointed out that nuclear power is “reliably constant at all times of day – a necessity for servers that can’t go down.”
Difficulties
Shulman stated that the U.S. “isn’t building nuclear power anymore,” which is the issue with all of that.
In recent decades, the country has scarcely constructed any new reactors. In Georgia, two U.S. nuclear reactors began commercial operations in 2023 and 2024. According to the Energy Information Administration, the launch of a new nuclear reactor in that country had not occurred since 2016.
According to Melbye of Uranium Energy, the industry’s permitting and regulatory processes also require improvement. “If we do things the same way we have done them for decades, we are doomed to failure.”
Although the United States still requires “regulatory independence to ensure world-class American nuclear safety culture,” he stated that in less than two years, rather than eight or ten, new, advanced reactors should be approved and permitted. He added that the United States must “rapidly reverse the atrophy which set in regarding our domestic fuel cycle,” pointing out that the country was not reliant on Russian uranium prior to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 and that it can do so once more with “focused” Trump administration policy priorities.
Imports of uranium
According to Hinze of UxC, the United States currently depends significantly on imports for both uranium and the conversion and enrichment of that uranium in order to transform it into usable fuel for nuclear power plants. “It is very hard to see how the U.S. will shift to a more domestically focused nuclear-fuel supply chain anytime in the near future.”
“It is extremely difficult to predict when the United States will transition to a nuclear-fuel supply chain that is more domestically focused.” UxC’s Jonathan Hinze
According to the EIA, 99% of the uranium concentrate used by U.S. nuclear generators to produce nuclear fuel in 2023 was imported, mostly from nations like Canada, Australia, and Russia.
According to John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management, it will be “challenging to expand domestic production without higher uranium prices, faster permitting and financial incentives,” even though the Trump administration’s executive orders recognize the reliance on imported uranium.
According to UxC, spot uranium prices were $70.90 a pound on Monday.
A price range of $150 to $200 per pound “would not be unrealistic,” according to Ciampaglia, although it is difficult to predict a price that would encourage production.
According to him, the United States is making headway in increasing its domestic enrichment capability.
The French-owned nuclear-fuel-cycle company Orano revealed intentions to construct a uranium-enrichment facility in Tennessee, while Urenco, a global provider of uranium-enrichment services with its headquarters located in the United Kingdom, announced the construction of an enrichment site in New Mexico.
However, there are also other obstacles to the nuclear power industry’s expansion.
According to Ciampaglia, the Trump administration has reduced or abolished financial incentives for renewable energy as it has turned its attention away from “intermittent or variable power forms” like wind and solar.
According to Hinze of UxC, nuclear power has benefited greatly from the previous Biden administration’s focus on mitigating climate change. Some utilities or energy consumers may become “less interested in nuclear as they gravitate more towards fossil fuels,” he warned, as a result of Trump’s rollback of these climate initiatives.
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Hinze added that several programs that previously supported nuclear may face cuts as the GOP-led Congress moves forward with a number of program cuts as part of its new tax bill.
