In the healthcare space, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now on President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team. What should investors think about his possible impact?
According to a note sent to investors on Friday by Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins, it’s likely with less worry than some people seem to be feeling.
Kennedy is known to be against at least some vaccines. He also has other controversial views on health care, such as being against the new class of GLP-1 drugs used to treat diabetes and help people lose weight.
As a member of what is likely the most famous family in Democratic Party politics, John F. Kennedy doesn’t have a health degree or any other official qualifications, but he made healthcare and the problems with the U.S. system a central part of his campaign for president.
In exchange for his help when Kennedy dropped his independent presidential bid, Trump said he would let Kennedy “run wild” on healthcare, but he didn’t say how.
Still, Meekins says we should take Trump seriously but not literally. This is similar to a saying that became popular when Trump won the presidency in 2016. If Trump really did say to Kennedy that he would take over public health services, as Kennedy has said, then Kennedy will not be free to do whatever he wants. A lot of things, like rules, laws, and regulations, will make it hard for Kennedy to do some things, the expert wrote.
Kennedy’s support may have been important for Trump to win the race, but Meekins said Trump can’t run again.
“Trump spent time with a lot of people but then let them go when he thought he didn’t need them anymore or when he thought they were a liability.” “This is not something that only Trump does; we think it’s pretty common in politics,” Meekins wrote.
One more important person during Trump’s first term that investors could use to frame the problem is Peter Navarro, who was assistant to the president and director of trade and manufacturing policy. Navarro later claimed to have a lot of power in the public health field.
Navarro had views that were different from the majority, and they had a big effect on Trump’s trade strategy.
“In the White House, could Kennedy play a similar role and have an effect on a few key health issues? Or, will all the drama and attention RFK Jr. gets from the media take the focus off of Trump, and he ends up being like Anthony Scaramucci, who only worked in the White House for 10 days?
Meekins said, “Bureaucracy does not blink.”
Meekins said that it is almost impossible to fire long-term government employees at public health agencies because of rules and laws passed by Congress.
The head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said bluntly on Thursday that he would not quit if Trump asked him to. Kennedy’s bosses are also likely to refuse any moves from him, he said.
Trump and his supporters, like Sen. J.D. Vance, who is now vice president-elect, have made it clear that they want to take on the government and long-time public servants. However, it will take time for that to happen.
The expert wrote, “It’s also important to remember that some people have come into government with big plans to change things, but after learning the ‘why’ behind a lot of the structure and actions, they changed their minds and only made small changes.” “From what we’ve talked about, FDA staff don’t like Kennedy and we think they will work together to stop what he’s doing.”
Meekins also doesn’t think Kennedy could get an official job that needs Senate approval, like being secretary of health and human services or commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration.
He is likely to be turned down by all Democrats, and because he doesn’t believe in vaccines and has other problems, “we think it is likely that many Republicans will also oppose his nomination to any position in health.”
Analysts at JPMorgan have, on the other hand, talked about how vaccine programs have wiped out or almost wiped out some of the worst diseases that can be prevented.
The chart below shows that vaccines for diseases like diphtheria, measles, mumps, polio, rubella, and smallpox have completely stopped deaths. On the other hand, vaccines for diseases like hepatitis A and tetanus have greatly reduced deaths.
Still, public health experts are worried that Kennedy’s views could make people less likely to get vaccinated, which would hurt efforts to vaccinate children, especially school-age children, since vaccines work best when whole groups get them.
Since the anti-vaxx movement grew, there have already been measles outbreaks in the U.S. This happened during pandemic lockdowns and other public health steps that conservatives didn’t like.
As of October 31, the CDC had recorded 272 cases of measles in 32 different areas. This year there have been 15 outbreaks, which are groups of three or more cases that are linked to each other. Outbreaks are linked to 71% of cases.
In 2023, on the other hand, there were only four outbreaks, and 49% of cases were linked to those epidemics.
The New York Times reports that Dr. Jerome Adams, who was surgeon general in Trump’s first term, spoke out about his worries at the annual meeting of the American Public Health Association last week.
He said that RFK Jr. having “significant influence on the next administration” could make people even less likely to get the vaccines they are supposed to get. “That worries me for what it might mean for our country’s health, its economy, and its safety around the world.”
