Even though Nvidia Corp. has grown very quickly, Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Melius Research, said that some investors are worried that the “law of large numbers” might catch up with the company in the next few years.
As the saying goes, companies that grow quickly can’t keep growing quickly forever. Investors are beginning to wonder more about Nvidia’s NVDA -0.36% future growth path. Experts think that the company’s sales will more than double this year, and they think they will rise by around 50% next year.
Even so, 50% growth is still very good; it was enough to put it at the top of MarketWatch’s latest list of chip names in the semiconductor sector. What comes next is the real question. Researchers think that sales will grow by about 20% in 2026, but Reitzes thinks that it could be as much as 30%.
“Speculation is mounting” that Nvidia will be able to deliver its next-generation Rubin chip months earlier than planned in 2026, which makes him optimistic. Reitzes brought up recent news stories that say Nvidia wants its makers to make memory parts faster.
“This is important because the earlier Rubin ships, the more likely it is that CY26 will be a better growth year than most people think,” he wrote.
According to Nvidia, Rubin was supposed to come out in calendar year 2026. However, the company believes that investors were “anchored” on the idea that it would be a second-half event that would be “heavily weighed” toward the fourth quarter due to supply-chain rumblings. “An increase of even one quarter in Rubin’s ‘volume’ quarter could be significant,” Reitzes wrote.
Nvidia didn’t want to say anything.
Reitzes wrote, “Speeding up the Rubin release (likely a blockbuster—with lightning fast speeds, lower power, and tons of memory) would ease some of these worries and could raise target multiples on the buy side.”
One might think that it could be worth up to a few turns, and some people might be more sure of its long-term earnings power over $6.50/share, he wrote. If Blackwell came out earlier, we don’t think it would change demand in 2025 either, because customers need the boost right now to reach their goals, and we mean right away.
To be safe, though, Reitzes thinks that investors should keep an eye on how this kind of move might affect Nvidia’s gross margins. Since games are coming out faster, they might “take a hit,” but that’s “hard to gauge, and Nvidia should get better and better at managing these transitions.”
