Apple Inc. is set for a good holiday season that could start a “supercycle,” since hundreds of millions of people around the world are planning to buy new iPhones with AI features in the next few months.
With new features coming out, this could mean huge sales in China, which is a very important market. It’s also likely to mean a new partner in China.
The stock of the Cupertino, California-based company AAPL -0.17% dropped 0.2% in the afternoon, going down from Friday’s record high of $254.49. In December alone, the stock set 11 new highs.
Analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush told clients on Monday that he thinks there are about 300 million iPhones in the world that haven’t been updated in over four years.
He thinks that Apple could sell a record 240 million or more new iPhones in fiscal 2025, which ends in September, because of recent checks into the company’s supply chain. This is because Apple Intelligence will start the AI-driven update cycle.
Based on data from FactSet, 207.6 million iPhones will be sold in fiscal year 2025.
If Ives’ prediction comes true, it will be the biggest iPhone sales beat since fiscal 2010, which is the earliest date for which FactSet has data.
In a note to clients, Ives said, “We believe that the success of iPhone 16 and the upcoming strong holiday season will be the starting point for a renaissance of growth in Cupertino over the next 12 to 18 months that begins in this December quarter.”
“Importantly, Apple Intelligence has not yet rolled out in China or many other countries. April is likely to be the month for these AI launches, and a Chinese tech partner will be named soon to help set the date for this rollout in this key region,” he said.
In fiscal year 2024, Apple made $66.95 billion, or 17% of its $391.04 billion in sales, in Greater China.
There are about 100 million iPhones in China that Ives thinks are “in the window” for an upgrade this year.
He thinks that “by early 2025,” Apple will be the first company to have a market value of $4 trillion.
With a market value of $3.84 trillion, Apple is by far the most valuable company in the United States right now. Based on market value, Nvidia Corp. NVDA +3.53% is in second place.
For Apple’s market value to reach $4 trillion, its stock would have to end above $264.62, which means it would have to rise more than 4.1% from where it is now.
Ives reiterated his “outperform” rating and $300 price goal for the stock over the next 12 months. That goal is the highest among the 53 Apple analysts asked by FactSet, and it means the company is worth $4.53 trillion.
Since the beginning of the year, the stock has gone up 32%. The S&P 500 has gone up 25%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone up 13.6%.
