The shares of Apple Inc. have done something that hasn’t happened in 14 years and almost never in the company’s 44-year public history. However, this might not be such a good thing for investors over the next month.
As of late Friday trading, AAPL -1.32% fell 1.6%, marking the first drop in six days. Apple stock was still up 0.1% for the week, but it was about to end a five-week run of weekly gains of at least 2%.
A BTIG technical strategist said that the company had not risen by 2% or more for five weeks in a row until the five weeks ending April 23, 2010.
With [Apple] once again the world’s most valuable company and nearing a $4 trillion market cap, we would be cautious on the stock heading into January.
Krinsky, BTIG
So far, the stock has only done that six times since 2000 (for six weeks in a row, ending April 17, 2009), and only ten times since it first went public in December 1980.
The recent rise in the stock price has put Apple on the verge of becoming the first U.S. company with a market value of $4 trillion. To get to that price, the stock has to close above $264.62.
From what we know about the past, that level might take longer than a few weeks to reach, even though it’s only 3.7% above where things are now.
With a market capitalization of $3.85 trillion, Apple is the most valuable company in the United States right now. Nvidia Corp. is in second place with a market valuation of $3.35 trillion.
BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky wrote, “Apple is once again the world’s most valuable company and is getting close to a $4 trillion market cap. We would be cautious on the stock going into January.”
The stock had gone up at least 2% for five weeks in a row nine times before this. However, it went down an average of 4.7% over the next four weeks, with a median drop of 5.5%.
Seven times, or 78% of those times, the stock went down. The biggest drop was 19.3% in February 1999, which was just 1.1% in November 2007. Each time it went up, it added about 8% to its value. It did this twice, in May 2009 and March 1991.
This year, Apple stock has gone up 32.3%, while the S&P 500 index SPX -1.11% has gone up 25.1%.
